Saudi Arabia’s attorney general, Sheikh Saud al-Mujib, stated on Dec. 5 that 159 of the 320 individuals swept up in the anti-corruption crackdown remained in detention in the Ritz-Carlton in Riyadh and that settlements had been reached with most of the others. He added that arrangements were being made to move assets seized from the settlements to state coffers and transfer an undisclosed number of remaining cases to the public prosecutor’s office. Prince Miteb bin Abdullah, the son of King Abdullah who was ousted as commander of the National Guard on Nov. 4, reportedly secured his release with a payment of $1 billion. Prince al-Waleed bin Talal, the flamboyant businessman and the wealthiest person in Saudi Arabia, was said to have hired lawyers to fight the charges. Saudi authorities have since reportedly set his release at a stunning $6 billion.
Taking on corruption is a double-edged sword for Mohammed bin Salman, whose own spending habits have come in for widespread media scrutiny and speculation in recent weeks and months, from a $500 million yacht and a $300 million French chateau to the most expensive painting ever bought at auction. There is little doubt that the crackdown on corruption, undertaken through the Supreme Anti-Corruption Committee that was launched on the morning of the November arrests, was a populist move, Saudi style, that has resonated with young Saudis, who have felt their opportunities constrained by vested economic and political interests. But against that is the alarm rippling through the international investor community at the apparent lack of due process in the corruption shakedown. Coming just weeks after Mohammed bin Salman wooed foreign investors in Riyadh in October for his glossy Future Investment Initiative, the detention of many Saudi business leaders raised the political risk of doing business in the kingdom just as the crown prince’s vaunted Vision 2030 reform plan cranks into gear.
Mohammed bin Salman may find it increasingly difficult to reconcile two very different audiences, one domestic and the other international, as he moves ahead with his grandiose vision to transform the Saudi economy. Some Saudi citizens contrast the fanfare of set-piece events aimed at an international audience, such as the announcement of plans for a new, $500 billion city on the Red Sea, with the lack of communication when new austerity measures are implemented. Rumblings of discontent are also evident among Saudi citizens on social media, some of whom have questioned Mohammed bin Salman’s plan to list five percent of the state oil company and cash cow, Saudi Aramco, in an initial public offering planned for 2018. The hashtag “Mohammed has sold the chicken” even trended on Twitter in May 2017.
The long delay in finalizing the arrangements for the erstwhile Aramco IPO, which Mohammed bin Salman first announced in January 2016, may also reinforce questions about the clarity and consistency of decision-making in Riyadh today. Mohammed bin Salman’s bold style is a world away from the caution that marked Saudi policymaking under a succession of aging monarchs in recent decades. But the lack of detail in several key initiatives, such as the National Transformation Plan 2020 and the Aramco IPO, suggests a haphazard, even reactionary approach that has yet to produce any real breakthroughs. That is true in foreign policy, too, with Saudi Arabia bogged down in the Yemen quagmire and unable to force Qatar to bend to its will despite a six-month diplomatic standoff.Saudi Arabia may be an authoritarian state, but it has never been a one-man show.
Mohammed bin Salman needs a quick win, wherever he can find it, both to show Saudi citizens that his ambitious overhaul of the economy will improve their prospects and to reassure an international community that is anxious about the risks of miscalculation. His advocates in Saudi Arabia and among the vocal Saudi lobby in Washington insist he enjoys high levels of popularity within the kingdom, especially among the youth. And yet, having amassed so much power and responsibility, the pressure is now to prove that his vision can become reality. Simply put, there is no one else to blame if things go wrong. The aftermath of floods that hit Jeddah on Nov. 21, just weeks after the crackdown, could provide an early test of how long the Saudi public is willing to wait for results.
The next steps in the anti-corruption campaign should offer signs of how Mohammed bin Salman will exercise all the power he has accumulated. His concentration of authority is squeezing the already-limited spaces that Saudi citizens previously had to organize and express themselves by aligning with different factions within the sprawling royal family. At a time when the Saudi government is turning its back on the austerity measures of 2015 and 2016 and unveiling an expansionary budget intended to revive a stalled economy, Mohammed bin Salman can ill afford to lose the confidence of the investors he needs for the Aramco IPO and Vision 2030.
Saudi Arabia may be an authoritarian state, but it has never been a one-man show. Informal checks and balances often existed when authority was spread among multiple senior members of the House of Saud. The deaths of several key royals between 2011 and 2015, culminating with King Abdullah, paved the way for the rise of Mohammed bin Salman. He has since made sure no one can contest his power ahead of acceding to a throne he intends to make his own for years, possibly decades, to come.
By: Writter
Birbal tamang.
No comments:
Post a Comment